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Fantastic Friday Weather ThoughtsIt is a beautiful morning after a wet and cloudy Wednesday. Some cumulus and stratocumulus clouds will likely develop again as we move through the day, but it is nice this morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) doesn have a risk for Saturday night yet, but I think they should, especially over parts of Nebraska and Iowa. Let take a look:

The dew points have been over forecasted by the models so far this season, but with south winds a wet Oklahoma and Texas to our south and the longer days we will likely see the dew points rise to near or above 70 degrees in spots near by on Saturday, as you can see above. But, again, the dew points have struggled to get this high so far this season and it would be a limiting factor if they stay under 65. And, there is a strong upper level system, very negatively tilted, that will be dropping/digging into the the Missouri River Valley by Saturday night as you can see below:

The energy from this negatively tilted storm will be passing by Saturday night into Sunday morning with a cold front being dragged across our region by Sunday morning. This has to result in an explosion of strong to severe thunderstorms in a zone across north central Kansas, across eastern Nebraska, and into northwestern Iowa Saturday evening. These thunderstorms would then likely try to form into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and track our way around midnight Saturday night, give or take a few hours. We will have to monitor this development for a line of very strong thunderstorms, possibly severe in our area.

Here is a surface forecast from last night GFS model:

The NAM model came out and trended into digging the storm a bit harder. The dew points forecast are lower than the GFS model and this limits the instability a bit. The low level moisture is the fuel for severe thunderstorms. Let see how it sets up on Saturday. In the mean time we have three great days of spring weather ahead of us.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments and we will go over all of the details on 41 Action News at 4, 5,
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6, and 10 PM tonight. Have a great Thursday!

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here in western KS as you call it (Olathe) I see lots of open fields. Where are you not seeing fields? Do you know how much farmland and fields are in KS? Where do you get this crap (AGAIN) about long track tornados? You frigging dangerous in your posts. You go against anything Gary or anyone here with decent met knowledge says. Yeah, Tush misspelled a word but it doesn send out a dangerous message like mg does. But then most of the posters understand not to bother with mg gloom and doom for every flippin rain storm.

I assume all those 90%ers were afraid of lightning LOL Honestly, I see the point if there alot of storm activity. But when it basically heavy rain, then why not? Again, we live in an age where people are either ignorant of severe weather or traumatized by the idea of a typical spring storm. When I was growing up no one panicked when it was going to rain. We assumed there would be lightning and some thunder. I love to go back to the days when we could expect a refreshing thunderstorm (because it wasn winter) , continue to advance warning technology to at least the extent it is in Europe, and not label everything severe.

While I do agree that during a thunderstorm and most certainly after what has transpired recently in OK, the siren should be postponed, unfortunately, we live in a knee jerk full time. At the very mention of a snow or ice storm during the winter, my boys and I watch (and make fun of) the folks at the grocery store buying like they are preparing for armageddon am with you on the fact that in my humble opinion, we, as a society, over react to everything. Should any real major catastrophy ever happen are in real trouble
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